Trade Jurrjens?

[Joe Schmoe]

Interesting article going into the payroll limitations we have here:

http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/10/14/will-braves-trade-jurrjens-to-strengthen-outfield/

[Tarkus]

Post by Joe Schmoe
http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/10/14/will-braves-trade-jurrjens-to-strengthen-outfield/

That's not the first time I've heard that suggested. It certainly seems
plausible, provided he can prove he's healthy.

[Colin William]

Post by Joe Schmoe
http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/10/14/will-braves-trade-jurrjens-to-strengthen-outfield/

It makes some sense, inasmuch as you have to give talent to get talent,
and even at his best Jurrjens has iffy peripherals. The problem right
now is you'd be trading him at the bottom of his value, sort of like we
just did with Yunel.

Colin

[Jon Richardson]

Post by Colin William

http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/10/14/will-braves-trade-j...

It makes some sense, inasmuch as you have to give talent to get talent,
and even at his best Jurrjens has iffy peripherals. The problem right
now is you'd be trading him at the bottom of his value, sort of like we
just did with Yunel.

My concern is that the same would be the case if trading Mike Minor,
who was so good until tiring and getting blown out in his last few
starts. For the Braves to get anything approximating a quality OF, at
least one SP is going to need to be traded. I agree with you that
Jurrjens may not be at his highest, but I believe he has the best
chance of producing a quality return.

I'd still love to know the backstory of what happened with Kawakami as
well, and how a team can so colossally sour on someone to that
extent. I can't for the life of me see him back in Atlanta next
year. $6.67M is a somewhat ugly salary, but it's somewhat tradeable
as well.

Jon

[Colin William]

Post by Jon Richardson
I'd still love to know the backstory of what happened with Kawakami as
well, and how a team can so colossally sour on someone to that
extent. I can't for the life of me see him back in Atlanta next
year. $6.67M is a somewhat ugly salary, but it's somewhat tradeable
as well.

His is an interesting story. At the time he was demoted his ERA was only
.06 more than Lowe's, but Lowe wasn't going to be demoted. At the time
of his demotion Jurrjens needed a spot, Medlen had been pitching well,
and Kawakami was the odd man out. On the surface it all makes sense.

Still, as you note, the team had clearly soured on him. He went to the
bullpen and was barely heard from again - had, what, two outings in a
month before he finally went to AAA? Fewer than Jesse Chavez? When you
can't even get mop-up work, you're clearly in the doghouse (though there
wasn't all that much mopup work to be had that month)

Colin

[Tomasz Radko]

Post by Joe Schmoe
http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/10/14/will-braves-trade-jurrjens-to-strengthen-outfield/

Looks good. Jurjens peripherials aren't very good. I'd trade him for
good, cheap CF in a second.

[Dale Hicks]

In article <i9855i$m5u$***@news.eternal-september.org>, mchome5
@bellsouth.net says...

Post by Joe Schmoe
http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/10/14/will-braves-trade-jurrjens-to-strengthen-outfield/

Because the last P for OF swap we did turned out so well...


I'm not seeing the budget crisis, at least not one to trade off a 24
year old pitcher just one year off of a 159 ERA+. Who could possibly
be netted in return? I can't imagine that we'd win the trade,
especially since we're buyin low. Rasmus is good, but I'd want a
Stanton or Bruce, and that deal just ain't gonna happen.

Looking at the bbref numbers, there is guaranteed $91.2M required to
field the same team, no options, next year. This is up $0.9M.

We say goodbye to Ankiel, Lee, and Farnsworth, who were all just mad
money rentals to try and get Bobby that one extra title.

We also would lose Infante, Gonzalez and Ross, which is clearly
unacceptable. Okay, first they're counting Saito as an Arb-3 player,
which I don't think is right for a player that's been granted his
free agency before. So there's $3.2M. Release Melky before he eats
himself to death and that saves at least another $3.1M. That takes
care of the $5M for Infante and Gonzalez (team options) and leaves
$1.3M to go to the save David Ross fund. If he signed for last
year's money, next season would see us $1.2M over this season plus
whatever money it takes to fill the gaps created with cheap talent.
Considering they shook the couches to pay for all the rentals this
year, this seems like something they could handle.

I'm not unrealistic -- we're going back into another rebuilding phase
where they can put on a team that's competitive for the wild card.
We lose some bats (not a big loss, but really don't expect more out
of Freeman than you got from Glaus except durability) and
Saito/Wagner at the end of games. Venters and Kimbrel seem ready, so
that leaves us with a similar team to this year's. One that's
overpaid for pitching (Lowe and Kawakami), leaving us deficient at LF
and 3B. Story of the Braves (since Chipper started breaking),
really. Except this season there's hope that 1B may finally be
manned.

[Joe Schmoe]

Post by Dale Hicks
@bellsouth.net says...

Post by Joe Schmoe
http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/10/14/will-braves-trade-jurrjens-to-strengthen-outfield/

Rasmus is good, but I'd want a
Stanton or Bruce, and that deal just ain't gonna happen.

Rasmus...if I see one more lefty bat in the Braves' lineup next season,
I'm probably going to take a hostage.

McCann, Freeman, Heyward, McLouth, that is enough.

[Tomasz Radko]

Post by Dale Hicks

Post by Joe Schmoe
http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/10/14/will-braves-trade-jurrjens-to-strengthen-outfield/

Because the last P for OF swap we did turned out so well...
I'm not seeing the budget crisis, at least not one to trade off a 24
year old pitcher just one year off of a 159 ERA+.

ERA+ isn't the best measure:
http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/618025-sabermetrics-a-science-fip-and-xfip

It seems Jurrjens was extremely lucky. He should have been traded a year
ago.

[Dale Hicks]

In article <i99j1c$hic$***@usenet.news.interia.pl>, ***@interia.pl
says...

Post by Tomasz Radko

Post by Dale Hicks
I'm not seeing the budget crisis, at least not one to trade off a 24
year old pitcher just one year off of a 159 ERA+.

http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/618025-sabermetrics-a-science-fip-and-xfip
It seems Jurrjens was extremely lucky. He should have been traded a year
ago.

One thing you have to keep in mind when looking at FIP is it's an
approximation that always seems to be clumped together around the
mean, meaning all good pitchers are going to have a lucky FIP and all
bad pitchers are going to have a better than they should FIP.

Take a FIP comparison of MLB pitchers in 2009:
17 CC Sabathia 3.39
18 Wandy Rodriguez 3.54
19 Carlos Zambrano 3.61
20 Josh Beckett 3.63
21 Ted Lilly 3.65
22 Jair Jurrjens 3.68
23 Brett Anderson 3.69
24 Jason Hammel 3.71
25 Cole Hamels 3.72

Those are some names that (with the exception of Hammel) are hard
players to justify trading unless the other side is pretty tempting.
(of course I'm talking from a MLB GM POV, I'd trade Zambrano or
Beckett in a heartbeat now)


xFIP seems broken from what I've seen -- it averages to a MLB mean of
fly-ball to HR ratio that is what they consider average, instead of
the real average for the season (or even better, using the team's
park average to factor into it). Turner Field seems to supress HRs,
and Hudson and Hanson's xFIPs were huge. I can't believe that
everyone just got lucky with HR/FB this year.

[Colin William]

Post by Dale Hicks
I'm not seeing the budget crisis, at least not one to trade off a 24
year old pitcher just one year off of a 159 ERA+. Who could possibly
be netted in return? I can't imagine that we'd win the trade,
especially since we're buyin low. Rasmus is good, but I'd want a
Stanton or Bruce, and that deal just ain't gonna happen.

I think you're right, up to a point. It just depends where the team
thinks they have depth, and where they lack depth. We have some amount
of pitching depth, though that's taken a hit with the loss of Medlen;
OTOH, we just have no depth in the OF. I'd not be enthused about trading
Jurrjens, but for a good, young, cheap outfielder I'd do it, because I'm
about sick of this team's revolving door of utter crap outfielders.

Honestly, though, the spot that concerns me more is SS. A few years ago
they were willing to deal Andrus because we had Yunel. Now Yunel is
gone, and while Gonzalez will be passable for a year at his price,
beyond that we have nothing. If the team is willing to trade a
bargaining chip like Jurrjens, I'd prefer they do so to fill a much
harder-to-fill slot like SS if they can. Although, for our team OF has
proven damned hard to fill...

Colin